The Indian stock market is going through one of its most difficult phases in recent years. The Nifty 50 has recorded its longest losing streak in 25 years — eight consecutive weeks of decline. The Sensex has slipped to around 72,382, and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pulled out massive amounts of money from Indian equities.
When the market falls like this, every investor — whether a beginner or a seasoned one — asks the same question: Should I invest now, or should I wait?
Some people panic and stop their SIPs. Some believe the market will fall further and decide to wait for the “bottom.” And some simply give up on investing altogether.
First, Let’s Understand How Much the Market Has Fallen
The numbers are concerning:
- Nifty 50 fell from around 23,140 to 22,421 — a weekly decline of about 3.10%
- Sensex dropped to around 72,382
- FIIs sold Indian equities worth ₹43,687 crore in just six trading sessions
- So far in 2026, foreign investors have withdrawn nearly ₹2.69 lakh crore from Indian stocks
- The rupee weakened to around 96 against the dollar, its lowest in two months
These numbers look scary. But the real question is — should these numbers stop you from investing?
The Biggest Question: Should You Stop Your SIP?
No. Experts are clear on this — stopping your SIP during a falling market can be one of the biggest mistakes an investor makes.
The reason is rupee cost averaging. When the market falls, the same SIP amount buys more units.
Let’s say your monthly SIP is ₹5,000:
- When the NAV was ₹50, you got 100 units
- When the NAV fell to ₹40, the same ₹5,000 bought 125 units
- When the NAV rose to ₹60, it bought only 83 units
This means during the fall, you accumulated more units at a lower price. When the market recovers, those extra units will work in your favour.
Aditi Kothari Desai of DSP Mutual Fund has said that “stopping your SIP in a falling market can be self-defeating” because it kills the entire benefit of cost averaging.
Advice Based on the Type of Investor You Are
If You Are Doing a SIP:
- Do not stop your SIP. Keep it running
- If your income has grown and your emergency fund is in place, you can slightly increase your SIP. But only if you can afford it — not just because the market has fallen
- Review your portfolio once or twice a year, not every week
- Do not check your portfolio daily. It will only increase your anxiety
If You Have a Lump Sum Amount:
- Investing the entire amount at once can be risky. If the market falls further, your losses will grow
- STP (Systematic Transfer Plan) is a better option — park your money in a liquid fund and transfer a small amount into equity every month
- Alternatively, spread your investment over 2–3 months to average out the cost
If You Are a New Investor:
- Do not wait for the “bottom” — it is almost impossible to predict
- Start with a SIP so that risk is spread out and discipline is built
- Valuations have become attractive. The Nifty’s forward P/E is around 17.2x, which is about 18% below its long-term average
Has the Market Bottomed Out?
Experts are divided on this.
The optimistic view: Technical indicators like RSI, India VIX (at a four-month high), and the FII long-to-short ratio suggest the market is deeply oversold. Historically, such extreme readings have been followed by sharp rebounds. Kotak Securities’ Shrikant Chouhan believes the 22,000–22,182 zone is a key support for the Nifty.
The cautious view: Most analysts believe that until oil prices and US bond yields cool down, a sustained recovery is unlikely. Motilal Oswal’s Chandan Taparia says that without a fresh positive trigger, durable recovery is difficult. He expects the Nifty to remain range-bound between 22,200 and 22,750, with every rally facing selling pressure.
Ambit Institutional Equities is more pessimistic. It predicts that the Indian market could deliver negative returns in 2026, which would break the Sensex’s ten-year streak of positive returns. The firm has specifically warned of a sharp correction in small and midcap stocks.
But I also believe that every fall is followed by a rise. The only question is — when?
Things to Keep in Mind
- Have a long-term view — do not expect returns in the next 2–3 months
- Keep your SIP running — do not stop it
- If you have a lump sum, use STP or invest in phases
- Be extra cautious with small and midcap stocks right now
- Protect your emergency fund and essential expenses first
- Do not invest based on someone else’s advice — invest according to your own capacity and goals
Conclusion: So, Is This the Right Time to Invest?
Yes, this is a good time to invest — but with conditions.
Valuations have become cheaper, and for long-term investors (7–10 years), this is an opportunity. But it is also true that the market could fall further. So do not panic, but do not be careless either.
The market will fall, and it will rise. But those who stay patient, do not panic, and invest for the long term — they are the ones who win in the end.
As the saying goes — “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
This is my personal opinion. Before making any investment decision, please consult your financial advisor.
