In May 2026, West Bengal delivered a political earthquake. The BJP won 206 seats, ending 15 years of Trinamool Congress rule and defeating Mamata Banerjee in her own constituency . Vote share jumped to 45.8%, up from 38% in 2021 .
For BJP supporters, this felt like destiny. Bloomberg declared that Modi was now poised to keep power well beyond 2030 . The Atlantic Council’s Michael Kugelman called the BJP “the heavy favourite” for a fourth term .
But destiny has a habit of humbling those who believe in it. Two years after the “400 Paar” slogan failed to materialise, the party is dealing with a different reality. Below are five issues that could determine whether 2029 brings triumph—or a very rude awakening.
1. The NEET Leak: When the Government Stole Students’ Futures
On May 3, 2026, over 2.2 million students sat for the NEET-UG medical entrance exam. They had prepared for years. Their families had spent lakhs on coaching. For many, this was the only shot at a medical career.
Then came the news: the paper had been leaked .
The CBI eventually arrested 13 accused, including NTA’s own subject experts . The exam was cancelled. A re-test was held on June 21. But the damage was done—12 students reportedly died by suicide after the stress of the cancellation .
By July, students had occupied Jantar Mantar for weeks. The Cockroach Janta Party, a satirical group, joined the protests and gave them a political edge . Police action against protesters—including pellet guns and alleged assaults on women—was caught on video and went viral .
On July 25, Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigned . It was a rare moment of accountability. But for millions of young voters, the question remains: if the government cannot protect a single exam, what exactly is it protecting?
The data is damning. According to The Wire, there have been 93 paper leaks in eight years, affecting nearly 600 million young people . Student suicides have risen 80% since 2014, with exam failure listed as the second leading cause .
The BJP’s response has been damage control: 47 NTA officials removed, NEET moving to computer-based testing by 2027, and a new anti-paper-leak law . But for Gen Z, the trust deficit may be permanent.
2. Fuel Price Hike: The First Cut Is the Deepest
On May 15, 2026, petrol and diesel prices rose by ₹3 per litre—the first hike in four years . By May 23, cumulative increases had reached nearly ₹5 per litre in less than 10 days .
In Delhi, petrol jumped from ₹94.77 to ₹99.51. In Mumbai, it crossed ₹108. In Kolkata, ₹110.64 .
The timing was politically explosive. The hikes came just 16 days after five states—including West Bengal—had finished voting . Opposition parties accused the government of deliberately freezing prices during elections and then passing the burden to consumers.
The reason for the hike was straightforward: global crude oil prices had surged past $113 per barrel due to the West Asia conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz . India imports nearly 90% of its crude, making it extremely vulnerable to global price shocks.
But economics does not soothe angry voters. For a household already struggling with inflation, a ₹5/litre increase in fuel costs ripples through everything: transportation, food, daily wages.
The Congress’s Rahul Gandhi put it bluntly: “The Modi government’s mistakes, the people pay for. The ₹3 shock has come. The remaining ‘Vasooli’ will happen in instalments” .
If crude prices remain elevated through 2028-2029, inflation could become the single biggest election issue.
3. The Ram Mandir Donation Scandal: A Wound in the Core Vote
For the BJP’s core Hindutva base, the Ram Mandir was not just a temple. It was a civilisational promise fulfilled. That is why the donation theft scandal cut deeper than any opposition attack could.
In June 2026, the Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Teerth Kshetra Trust was rocked by allegations that cash-counting staff had stolen devotee offerings worth ₹7-8 crore . The modus operandi was brazen: bypassing standard procedures, ignoring CCTV cameras, siphoning cash .
Eight people were arrested, including Champat Rai’s driver . Champat Rai, the Trust’s powerful general secretary, resigned. Trustee Anil Mishra followed .
Treasurer Swami Govind Dev Giri publicly distanced himself, stating: “I have never had any connection with the place where offerings deposited in the donation boxes by devotees are counted” .
The Trust’s official line was that the theft’s “magnitude—whether small or large—is secondary. What pains us is that such an atmosphere developed here” .
For the BJP, this is dangerous. The Ram Mandir was supposed to be beyond corruption—a symbol of purity and devotion. When that symbol is tainted, it does not just anger opponents. It disillusions believers.
4. The E20 Fuel Mandate: When “Green Policy” Meets Angry Motorists
Ever since the BJP government introduced the E20 fuel policy, people have been completely dissatisfied and unwilling to adopt it; yet, the government is forcing it upon them. This policy could potentially lead to the BJP’s electoral defeat. Although the government claims that using E20 petrol causes no harm to vehicles, many vehicle owners have expressed negative views regarding its performance. Consequently, the government provided an option for 100% petrol, but it is priced ₹50–60 per liter higher than E20 fuel. This has further alienated the general public, as it directly impacts their pockets. Ultimately, the E20 issue could play a decisive role in determining the BJP’s victory or defeat.
5. Uttar Pradesh: The Hindi Heartland Is Slipping
The most alarming data for the BJP comes from Uttar Pradesh.
According to the August 2026 Mood of the Nation survey, if elections were held today, the INDIA bloc would win 41 of UP’s 80 seats, against 38 for the NDA . This is a reversal from January 2026, when the NDA was projected at 48 seats and the INDIA bloc at 31 .
The swing is significant. UP sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha—the single largest state bloc. Losing even 10 seats there can mean the difference between majority and opposition.
CVoter founder Yashwant Deshmukh attributed the shift not to the Ram Mandir issue but to the UGC’s equity regulations—suggesting that youth and education-related grievances are translating into electoral losses
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute political endorsement or electoral advice.
